Convertidor de Probabilidad Implícita
Convierte cualquier formato de cuota en probabilidad implícita, descubre el margen oculto de la casa y calcula las cuotas justas para cualquier resultado.
Implied Probability Converter
Convert any odds format to implied probability, see the bookmaker margin (overround), and reveal the true no-vig fair odds. Works for decimal, American, and fractional odds on any market.
| Outcome | Cuotas decimales | Implied prob | True prob | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.100 | 47.62% | 44.72% | 2.236 |
| Draw | 3.500 | 28.57% | 26.83% | 3.727 |
| Away | 3.300 | 30.30% | 28.46% | 3.514 |
Qué significa esto
Implied probability is what the bookmaker's odds suggest the chance of an outcome is before margin is removed. If the sum of all implied probabilities exceeds 100%, the surplus is the bookmaker's profit margin (overround or vig). A 5% overround on a 2-way market means the bookmaker prices both outcomes as if the total probability were 105%.
True (no-vig) probability is calculated using the additive method: each outcome's implied probability is divided by the sum of all implied probabilities, redistributing the margin equally. True fair odds are 1 ÷ true probability — this is the price you would see at a zero-margin exchange.
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