Implied Probability Converter
Convert any odds format to implied probability, reveal the bookmaker's hidden margin, and calculate the true fair odds for any outcome. Works for decimal, American, and fractional odds on any 2-way or 3-way market.
Implied Probability Converter
Convert any odds format to implied probability, see the bookmaker margin (overround), and reveal the true no-vig fair odds. Works for decimal, American, and fractional odds on any market.
| Outcome | Decimal odds | Implied prob | True prob | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.100 | 47.62% | 44.72% | 2.236 |
| Draw | 3.500 | 28.57% | 26.83% | 3.727 |
| Away | 3.300 | 30.30% | 28.46% | 3.514 |
What this means
Implied probability is what the bookmaker's odds suggest the chance of an outcome is before margin is removed. If the sum of all implied probabilities exceeds 100%, the surplus is the bookmaker's profit margin (overround or vig). A 5% overround on a 2-way market means the bookmaker prices both outcomes as if the total probability were 105%.
True (no-vig) probability is calculated using the additive method: each outcome's implied probability is divided by the sum of all implied probabilities, redistributing the margin equally. True fair odds are 1 ÷ true probability — this is the price you would see at a zero-margin exchange.
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Find best odds across bookmakersWhat is implied probability in sports betting?
Implied probability is the probability of an outcome that a bookmaker's odds imply, before their margin is removed. For decimal odds of 2.50, the implied probability is 1 ÷ 2.50 = 40%. For a true 2-way market, the two implied probabilities should sum to exactly 100%. When they sum to more than 100% — say 108% — the extra 8% is the bookmaker's overround (their guaranteed profit margin built into the odds).
How to calculate true (no-vig) odds
The additive method (used in this calculator) removes the overround by dividing each outcome's implied probability by the sum of all implied probabilities. Example for a 3-way market with implied probs of 60%, 25%, 25% (total 110%): true probs are 60/110=54.5%, 25/110=22.7%, 25/110=22.7%. True fair decimal odds are 1 ÷ true_prob. The Pinnacle method and Shin method are alternative approaches that produce slightly different results but are more complex to compute by hand.
Frequently Asked Questions — Implied Probability
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