When Morocco eliminated Spain and Portugal in consecutive knockout games at Qatar 2022, the world dismissed it partially as shock and awe - a one-tournament phenomenon driven by exceptional discipline and a hospitable path. Two and a half years later, the same coach, a more experienced spine and a richer squad depth of Europeans-born Moroccan dual nationals stare back at us, and the dismissal is harder to sustain.
Regragui's system is built on a 4–3–3 defensive block that transitions vertically at speed. The deep defensive structure - which kept a clean sheet in 80% of their Qatar knockout games - has been augmented by a more proactive pressing scheme in the final third. In friendly cycles through 2024–25, Morocco pressed high against Germany and Holland in separate fixtures, winning the ball back in advanced zones at a rate comparable to top-ten ranked nations. The tactical evolution is real.
The attacking threat centres on Hakim Ziyech, whose creative influence continues despite a transient club career, and the emerging threat of Azzedine Ounahi in the left interior channel. Sofyan Amrabat - now at a major European club - provides the midfield anchor whose ball-winning capacity allows the wide players to operate with advanced starting positions. When Morocco are at their best, their direct ball progression from deep areas is faster than almost any team in this tournament.
Morocco's Group C draw is manageable. Belgium's decline is structural - Kevin De Bruyne turned 35 in June and their defensive recruitment has not kept pace with the exit of their golden generation's defensive pillars. Croatia remain robust but aging. Canada, as a host nation, bring emotional energy but limited technical punch against European bloc defending. Morocco as group winners at +250 (3.50) and reaching the quarterfinals at +150 (2.50) both represent genuine value.
The ceiling scenario - a repeat semi-final - is not fanciful. Morocco's deepening pool of dual-national talent, their structural tactical clarity and the maturity of players who were junior contributors in 2022 and are now senior figures, combine into a genuinely dangerous proposition. Back Morocco at +3500 (36.00) for the outright as a low-stake high-upside position - and take their group win market at current prices before Belgium's squad doubts narrow the gap.
