Why we like it

• Group H is essentially Spain + three beatable opponents. Uruguay's path to 2nd place runs through Saudi Arabia (home: 2.1 favoured) and Cabo Verde (uruguay: 1.57 favoured) - both among the lowest-ranked teams in any group.
• Marcelo Bielsa transformed the squad's pressing intensity: Uruguay conceded 0.78 goals per 90 across CONMEBOL qualifying, second only to Argentina.
• Federico Valverde (Real Madrid) is arguably the world's best box-to-box midfielder in this cycle - his energy, passing range and goalscoring (8 G in La Liga 25/26) makes Uruguay dangerous even against elite sides.
• Darwin Núñez (Liverpool) led the CONMEBOL scorers in qualifying (9 goals) and brings aerial threat that Saudi Arabia and Cabo Verde cannot handle.
• Uruguay only need to avoid catastrophic collapse against Spain (match g47 odds: es 17.0 favourites) - even a honourable defeat while winning the other two is enough.

Alternative angles

Related predictions

Group E · qualify

Côte d'Ivoire

2.35

Confidence

3/5

Côte d'Ivoire to qualify from Group E at 2.35

The Elephants open as favourites against Ecuador, have AFCON-tested tournament pedigree, and Emerse Faé's compact 4-4-2 is built for exactly this kind of group-stage grind. The price on Pinnacle looks generous.

Côte d'Ivoire to qualify from Group E

Pinnacle

Group C - winner

Netherlands

2.10

Confidence

4/5

Netherlands to win Group C - value over the USA

The hosts get the noise; the Dutch get the goal difference. Netherlands at 2.10 is the play.

Netherlands to win Group C

FanDuel