Mbappé at 7.50 - the right favourite at the right price
France's projected goal supremacy and Mbappé's penalty duties give him 2 extra shots on goal vs the field.
Golden Boot
France
Our pick
Kylian Mbappé Golden BootWhy we like it
- Projected to play the most knockout-stage minutes of any top scorer (France favoured to reach SF).
- Sole penalty taker - historically worth ~1.2 expected goals across a tournament.
Statistical Evidence
- 0.71 xG/90 in the cycle, second only to Haaland - and Norway's path is far less certain.
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Alternative angles
If Brazil run deeper than expected, his price is generous.
England's shortest-priced goal supremacy outside France.
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