What is Expected Goals (xG)?
A statistical metric estimating the probability of a shot becoming a goal based on its characteristics.
Definition
Expected Goals (xG) assigns a goal probability between 0 and 1 to every shot based on shot location, angle, body part used, defender pressure, build-up pattern and other features. A team's xG total is the sum of all shot probabilities — typically 0.5 to 3.5 per match. xG is the leading indicator of underlying performance: a team out-shooting their xG (e.g. 0.8 actual goals on 1.5 xG) is statistically likely to revert. Bettors use xG to spot teams whose results haven't caught up to their underlying numbers yet.
Example
Liverpool 1.2 actual goals from 2.4 xG over 5 matches = under-performing by 1.2 goals. Expect mean reversion → BTTS Yes at 1.85 looks fair.
Related terms
More from this category: Strategies & Edge
FAQ
What does "Expected Goals (xG)" mean in sports betting?
A statistical metric estimating the probability of a shot becoming a goal based on its characteristics.
How is "Expected Goals (xG)" used at the FIFA World Cup 2026?
Expected Goals (xG) applies to every World Cup 2026 match in the same way as any other regulated sports event. Fan Bet Odds tracks the relevant prices and lines across Bet365, Pinnacle, DraftKings, BetMGM and other licensed bookmakers — see the match prediction and odds pages for live application.
Where can I see "Expected Goals (xG)" in action on Fan Bet Odds?
Expected Goals (xG) appears throughout our match prediction pages (/odds/predictions/match/[slug]), market deep-dives (/odds/predictions/match/[slug]/[market]) and bookmaker reviews (/bet/bookmakers/[slug]). Use the related terms below to navigate the broader glossary.
World Cup 2026 - Daily Odds & Tips
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