What is Expected Value (EV)?
The average profit or loss per bet if repeated an infinite number of times.
Definition
Expected Value (EV) is the mathematical foundation of profitable betting. Formula: EV = (win probability × net win amount) − (loss probability × stake). A bet with positive EV will profit long-term; a bet with negative EV will lose. Example: a coin-flip bet at decimal 2.10 has EV = (0.50 × $1.10) − (0.50 × $1.00) = +$0.05 per dollar staked (+5% EV). Every bookmaker market has negative EV for the bettor in aggregate; beating the vig requires identifying the specific bets where the book's implied probability is too high.
Example
$100 bet at 2.20 odds. True win probability 55%. EV = (0.55 × $120) − (0.45 × $100) = $66 − $45 = +$21. Positive - bet it.
Related terms
More from this category: Betting Basics
FAQ
What does "Expected Value (EV)" mean in sports betting?
The average profit or loss per bet if repeated an infinite number of times.
How is "Expected Value (EV)" used at the FIFA World Cup 2026?
Expected Value (EV) applies to every World Cup 2026 match in the same way as any other regulated sports event. Fan Bet Odds tracks the relevant prices and lines across Bet365, Pinnacle, DraftKings, BetMGM and other licensed bookmakers — see the match prediction and odds pages for live application.
Where can I see "Expected Value (EV)" in action on Fan Bet Odds?
Expected Value (EV) appears throughout our match prediction pages (/odds/predictions/match/[slug]), market deep-dives (/odds/predictions/match/[slug]/[market]) and bookmaker reviews (/bet/bookmakers/[slug]). Use the related terms below to navigate the broader glossary.
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