What is Implied Probability?
The probability of an outcome implied by its odds, calculated as 1 / decimal odds.
Definition
Implied probability converts odds back into a percentage chance. For decimal odds: implied probability = 1 / odds. Odds of 2.00 imply 50%; 1.50 implies 66.7%; 4.00 implies 25%. To find a value bet, compare the bookmaker's implied probability with your own (or a sharp book's) estimate. If your model says 60% but the price says 50%, that's a +EV value spot. Strip overround from a market to get true implied probability.
Example
Pinnacle prices Argentina at 1.85, implying 54.1% chance. If your model says 60%, the bet has +5.9 percentage points of edge.
Related terms
More from this category: Betting Basics
FAQ
What does "Implied Probability" mean in sports betting?
The probability of an outcome implied by its odds, calculated as 1 / decimal odds.
How is "Implied Probability" used at the FIFA World Cup 2026?
Implied Probability applies to every World Cup 2026 match in the same way as any other regulated sports event. Fan Bet Odds tracks the relevant prices and lines across Bet365, Pinnacle, DraftKings, BetMGM and other licensed bookmakers — see the match prediction and odds pages for live application.
Where can I see "Implied Probability" in action on Fan Bet Odds?
Implied Probability appears throughout our match prediction pages (/odds/predictions/match/[slug]), market deep-dives (/odds/predictions/match/[slug]/[market]) and bookmaker reviews (/bet/bookmakers/[slug]). Use the related terms below to navigate the broader glossary.
World Cup 2026 - Daily Odds & Tips
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